Forecasting a dead end for chips
The 4004 microprocessor
(Credit: Intel)(Editor's note, 10:25 p.m. PDT: The original headline on this blog was altered to remove the word "subatomic" because its usage may not have been appropriate.)
TEL AVIV, Israel--One of Intel's legendary chip developers says that the computer industry may no longer be able to infinitely shrink microprocessor die size.
And if anyone should know, it's Marcian E. "Ted" Hoff.
The designer behind the 4004 chip, Intel's first microprocessor, Hoff says that a technical end of the road may soon be within sight.
"We are approaching atomic dimensions," Hoff said, adding that "5 or 10 nanometers is as small as we can get. And I haven't seen much to change my mind."
Intel's most advanced chips are at 45 nanometers, while 32-nanometer technology should be out sometime next year. But Hoff, Intel's 12th employee, whose technology breakthrough helped create the microcomputer industry, cautioned that before long, "progress may slow or stop someday."
Ted Hoff
(Credit: Silicom Ventures)This shouldn't come as a complete surprise. Hoff and other Intel officials have warned for years that they would eventually run up against a technical wall they might not be able to hurdle.
He said that development is getting much harder and that Intel is going to have to do some novel things to maintain the same technical momentum. Talking about previous generations of Intel microprocessors, Hoff said that "each one has been a variation of the previous one. So, essentially, we're running our computers on glorified 8088s."
Of course, Intel has been wringing its hands about Moore's Law for quite some time, and still the company manages to pull through.
It is interesting to speculate that the very close relationship Apple has developed with Intel in recent years (example: Intel developing a special small size processor for the Air at Apple's request) possibly means a very deep sharing of intellectual resources between the company's as they both come to terms with an eventual nano-meter limit and how to overcome it. The speculation that the solution will be shared by software developer in partnership with the chipmaker was confirmed by Jobs confident words.
Steve Jobs talked about the theoretical possibilities of this new approach (potential dramatic increases in RAM as example) that indicate that while improvements may not come from chip shrinkage at some stage, the processing performance improvements due to lateral developments are likely to escalate either as fast or even faster than we have seen to date.
Forecasting a dead end for chips may not be effecting Intel now; however Intel (if not others) may still stay in the game by custom tailoring chips and processors for target populations.
For example the gamers might want micro processing that is totally marketed for gaming if it only gains them a nano-thumper increase in game play Medical technology for analysis and even implants may need to have their chips or the whole processor custom made.
Heart impairments, even cardiac arrhythmia, are served by miniature "paddles" that are placed into the heart itself as implants [clear!] My father has one. Would he be better served by multiple implants that are "integrated" into the heart?
The heart and various organs might have several other multiple implants and it could be the fulfillment of hardware solutions to disease.
Who knows what other markets will want "designer processing" If that doesn't work Intel may want to take a page from Apples iPods and start selling Intel processors in a dozen fashion colors.